A) provide estimates that are too wide.
B) rely too heavily on the representativeness heuristic.
C) are not sufficiently confident about their decisions.
D) provide estimates that are too narrow.
F) A) and D)
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A) because of our normal cognitive processes.
B) because we dislike certain categories of people.
C) because we feel guilty,and we want to blame other categories of people for some problems.
D) because of factors that evolutionary psychology can explain.
F) None of the above
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A) People are not very accurate on everyday deductive-reasoning tasks,so the theme doesn't apply here.
B) The reasoning tasks we encounter in our daily lives are generally more concrete,so we are more likely to be accurate.
C) People typically change these reasoning tasks into decision-making tasks,which are easier to solve quickly and accurately.
D) People really are quite accurate on reasoning tasks,even when these tasks are abstract.
F) None of the above
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A) the availability heuristic.
B) the anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
C) the representativeness heuristic.
D) the recognition heuristic.
F) A) and B)
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A) people consistently seek out negative information rather than positive information.
B) the problem is easier to solve if it describes something concrete,such as drinking age.
C) this is one of the few tasks that people can solve more accurately in their heads than when the problem is represented with concrete objects.
D) people are systematically influenced by the representativeness heuristic.
F) None of the above
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A) demonstrated confirmation bias.
B) relied too heavily on the belief-bias effect.
C) relied too heavily on counterexamples.
D) overused the availability heuristic.
F) B) and C)
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A) people pay too much attention to the base rate in making probability judgments.
B) people often reach the correct decision when the question is worded differently.
C) training sessions are generally unsuccessful at getting students to use base-rate information appropriately.
D) the conjunction fallacy explains why people pay so little attention to the base rate.
F) A) and D)
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A) "How do math undergraduates and math professors differ in their confidence about decisions?"
B) "How long do people maintain their commitment to an unsatisfactory decision?"
C) "Under what circumstances do people overestimate their ability to predict events that have already occurred?"
D) "Should a product that costs $300 and is marked down to $200 be advertised as only $200 or $100 off?"
F) A) and C)
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A) in general,people select answers that are correct from a logical standpoint.
B) the anchoring and adjustment heuristic often operates inappropriately.
C) people typically have the biased belief that they ought to affirm the consequent.
D) people often select answers that are "common sense" rather than logically correct.
F) A) and D)
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A) small-sample fallacy.
B) base rate fallacy.
C) anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
D) false algorithm.
F) A) and D)
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A) the confirmation bias slightly increases the accuracy of answers for novices.
B) the confirmation bias typically occurs when people rely too strongly on the crystal-ball technique.
C) the confirmation bias means that people prefer to demonstrate that a hypothesis is true,rather than to demonstrate that it is false.
D) typically only about 10% of college students tend to show the confirmation bias.
F) None of the above
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A) this is an example of an illusory correlation.
B) people usually have difficulty in answering questions that use the anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
C) this is a variant of the representativeness heuristic.
D) this is an example of the recognition heuristic.
F) A) and C)
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A) people would rather focus on the antecedent than on the consequent.
B) people would rather think in terms of what is not true than in terms of what is true.
C) people would rather confirm a hypothesis than disprove it.
D) people would rather deny the consequent than affirm the antecedent.
F) A) and C)
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A) the confirmation bias.
B) the base-rate fallacy.
C) the availability heuristic.
D) the representativeness heuristic.
F) B) and C)
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A) Solange: "Overconfidence applies to many other cognitive tasks,in addition to decision making."
B) Igor: "The research on overconfidence shows that participants are consistently overconfident,no matter what kind of questions they are asked."
C) Steve: "Individual differences are surprisingly small in this area; both experts and novices show similar levels of overconfidence."
D) Amber: "The overconfidence effect can be traced to illusory correlations."
F) All of the above
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A) Analogy
B) Conditional reasoning problem
C) The crystal-ball technique
D) Syllogism
F) A) and B)
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A) Ko-Eun: "We use the representativeness heuristic when we judge frequency in terms of how easily we can think of examples of a category."
B) Tianna: "The representativeness heuristic demonstrates that we initially make a guess,and then we make modest adjustments to that initial guess."
C) Brandon: "When using the representativeness heuristic,we overemphasize the base rate and don't pay enough attention to the availability heuristic."
D) Celia: "The representativeness heuristic typically works well,although we tend to ignore other relevant information that we should consider."
F) B) and D)
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A) may become a liability when they are applied inappropriately.
B) always lead us to the correct decision.
C) are mathematical formulas that precisely predict how people will perform on decision-making tasks.
D) are helpful in decision-making situations,but people rarely apply them.
F) A) and D)
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A) a conjunction fallacy.
B) the framing effect.
C) the hindsight bias.
D) the representativeness heuristic.
F) None of the above
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A) when medical journals contain many articles about a particular disease,physicians are likely to believe that it is easily curable.
B) estimates for a country's population are distorted by the frequency with which the country is mentioned in the news.
C) more recent events tend to be given relatively little weight in making frequency estimates,compared with events that occurred long ago.
D) people almost always select answers that are consistent with deductive reasoning.
F) B) and C)
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